{"id":21290,"date":"2024-02-22T11:29:33","date_gmt":"2024-02-22T11:29:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/?p=21290"},"modified":"2024-02-26T17:43:02","modified_gmt":"2024-02-26T17:43:02","slug":"why-bolsover-could-be-the-next-port-talbot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/why-bolsover-could-be-the-next-port-talbot\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Bolsover could be the next Port Talbot"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>After Tata Steel closed in Port Talbot, other local labour markets dominated by singular employers or industries may also be vulnerable,<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0<strong><em>write <a href=\"https:\/\/www.employment-studies.co.uk\/staff\/daniel-muir\">Daniel Muir, Research Economist at IES<\/a><\/em><\/strong>\u00a0<em><strong>and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.employment-studies.co.uk\/staff\/nick-litsardopoulos\">Nick Litsardopoulos, Research Economist at IES<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Last month, it was <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/uk-wales-68022901\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">announced<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that Tata Steel would be closing its blast furnaces in Port Talbot. This sparked discussion about the continued changes to Britain\u2019s industrial mix, its importance for national security, and the sacrifices that need to be made in pursuit of Net Zero. Underneath all these big picture debates though, this news will have hit the people of Port Talbot the hardest. The steel works was a major employer in the area, providing both a key source of employment and some relatively high quality, high paying job opportunities as well.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Taking a look at <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/hire\/labour-market-intelligence\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Adzuna\u2019s intelligence portal<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, their proprietary dashboard that displays a wide range of aggregate statistics based on job postings data, we can see just how important Tata Steel was within Port Talbot\u2019s labour market. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The chart below shows that in the year leading up to the announcement, Tata Steel was by far the top hiring employer in the area, holding 421 vacancies which was around 27% more than Tesco, the second top hiring employer.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-21296\" src=\"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/chart-1.png\" alt=\"Chart 1\" width=\"1286\" height=\"571\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/chart-1.png 1286w, https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/chart-1-300x133.png 300w, https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/chart-1-1024x455.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/chart-1-768x341.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1286px) 100vw, 1286px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In addition to this, it was largely the only major hiring employer outside of the retail, hospitality and care industries, i.e., typically lower paying industries with roles largely concentrated at the lower end of the skills spectrum.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The engineering sector (which Tata Steel operated in) also typically contains a lot of apprenticeship opportunities, meaning great pathways from education into high quality careers for young people. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The table below shows the main occupations being hired for in the engineering sector in Port Talbot over the same period, dominated by Tata Steel. These were largely relatively high paying and highly skilled positions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-21299\" src=\"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/chart-2.png\" alt=\"Chart 2\" width=\"913\" height=\"598\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/chart-2.png 913w, https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/chart-2-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/chart-2-768x503.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 913px) 100vw, 913px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On the year, this means that average salaries of vacancies is down 4% in Port Talbot, compared to 6% growth across the UK as a whole. For more information on how Tata Steel\u2019s closure in Port Talbot can be seen in Adzuna\u2019s data, see <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/tonywilsonIES\/status\/1748293280435994850\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">here<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> comment from Tony Wilson, Director of the Institute for Employment Studies.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Putting Tata steel closures in context, below is from the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/adzuna?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@adzuna<\/a> Intelligence Portal that we have access to.<br \/>\nOver last year it has been the *single largest hiring employer* in Port Talbot &#8211; and virtually the only major employer outside of retail, hospitality, care.<br \/>\n&#x1f9f5; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xKWkpH1I1g\">pic.twitter.com\/xKWkpH1I1g<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Tony Wilson (@tonywilsonIES) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/tonywilsonIES\/status\/1748293280435994850?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 19, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This news thus highlights how vulnerable local labour markets can be to the activity of individual employers or single industries. So we decided to take a look at which other local areas are also dominated by certain industries and employers, to highlight where policy makers may need to pay particular attention in developing Britain\u2019s industrial strategy and policy focused on regional economies.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Vulnerable local labour markets beyond Port Talbot<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One source of information on this is the Business Register and Employment Survey, which provides information on employment by industry at the local level. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Consulting the 2022 dataset, we can see that manufacturing (i.e., the industry that Tata Steel operates within) accounted for 18% of employment in the area, more than double the proportion across the UK as a whole (8%). Additionally, there are 8 instances where a single industry accounts for more than 30% of employment within a local authority:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Manufacturing \u2013 Barrow-in-Furness (33.3%), Copeland (34.4%)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Human health and social work activities \u2013 Knowsley (30.3%)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Administrative and support service activities \u2013 Luton (32.4%), Dacorum (44.4%)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Financial and insurance activities \u2013 City of London (32.4%)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Education \u2013 Oxford (31.1%)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hospitality \u2013 Isles of Scilly (48.0%)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Naturally, the extent to which singular employers account for the majority of this employment in an area industry (and thus the extent to which the local labour market is vulnerable to that employer closing) will vary \u2013 I\u2019m guessing that the University of Oxford accounts for a much greater proportion of employment in Oxford than the singular largest hotel or restaurant does in the Isles of Scilly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So to look further at which employers dominate specific local labour markets, as well as to get more up to date information (Adzuna\u2019s data is available in real time), we turn to the intelligence portal. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We first extract information on vacancy demand for each industry in the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/methodology\/classificationsandstandards\/ukstandardindustrialclassificationofeconomicactivities\/uksic2007\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Standard Industrial Classification<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> across each of the UK\u2019s local authorities. Then, having identified instances where an industry dominates vacancy demand in an area, we take a closer look at which employers are responsible for this. We look at the job postings data covering 19\/02\/23 \u2013 19\/02\/24. There are 11 instances where a single industry accounts for over 50% of vacancy demand within a single local authority. Three industries are responsible for these, so we\u2019ll take a look into each of these in turn.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Before we do though, we should note a couple of things about the data. While we use local authorities as the local geographic unit under consideration, these do not directly correspond to local labour markets. Many individuals live and work in different local authorities, so identifying local authorities with vacancy demand concentrated among an industry \/ employer in this way doesn\u2019t translate directly to the extent to which a local labour market is susceptible to the loss of a certain industry or employer, which is what we\u2019re really interested in. We could have used the 2011 Travel to Work Areas, although these are somewhat out of date by now and as a simple exercise it\u2019s perfectly fine to work with local authorities as long as this is kept in mind. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One other point to note is Adzuna is not able to assign an industry to all employers that have listings on the site. Some are too small and so the form of their activities are unknown. As such, we may overstate the share of employment held by big name employers whose industries are more likely to be known. There will also be some instances where the industry of the employer may be misclassified, but we assume this comes out in the wash. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So, let&#8217;s look at the areas which might be the most vulnerable to the closure of a single employer.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Public administration and defence<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The public sector is responsible for the vast majority of instances where a single industry dominates vacancy demand in a local authority. Each of the instances where the public sector accounts for over 50% of vacancy demand happen to occur in relatively remote parts of Scotland.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> In each of Aberdeenshire, Scottish Borders, East Lothian, North Ayrshire, Argyll and Bute, Shetland Islands and Orkney Islands, the respective local council is by far the largest employer. For most of these local authorities, the proportion of vacancy demand held by the public sector was 50-60%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-21301\" src=\"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/julie-adams-XziNJnO9iSM-unsplash.jpg\" alt=\"Aberdeen, Scotland.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/julie-adams-XziNJnO9iSM-unsplash.jpg 1920w, https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/julie-adams-XziNJnO9iSM-unsplash-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/julie-adams-XziNJnO9iSM-unsplash-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/julie-adams-XziNJnO9iSM-unsplash-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/julie-adams-XziNJnO9iSM-unsplash-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The highest share was held by the public sector in the Orkney Islands, at 79%. Additionally, whilst (correctly) classified as being an employer in the healthcare industry, the NHS (the relevant local trusts) is also among the top hiring employers in each of these areas. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Government budget cuts will naturally affect the creation of job opportunities in this industry in these locales, increasing the vulnerability of the local labour markets, although these employers are highly unlikely to close altogether reducing the chances of a Port Talbot Tata Steel type event.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Wholesale and retail<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Three local authorities had their vacancy demand dominated by the wholesale and retail industry. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The highest share of vacancy demand held by the industry was in Mid-Ulster, at 61%. The areas\u2019 top hiring employer was Terex, a manufacturer and retailer of wood processing, biomass and recycling equipment, which accounted for 18% of vacancy demand in the area. (This could be considered a misclassification as it appears they work with separate dealers who could be considered the wholesaler\/ retailer for their products whilst Terex themselves are the manufacturer, although we don\u2019t know enough about this company to say for certain). <\/span>Other top hiring wholesalers and retailers in the area include Tesco, Poundland, Card Factory and Asda.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ipswich is also an area where over half of vacancy demand is made up by the wholesale and retail industry, with the top five hiring employers over the period all being from the industry \u2013 the Co-operative Group, Tesco, Sofology, Kingfisher, and Sainsbury\u2019s.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A leading candidate for the next potential Port Talbot could be Bolsover in the midlands. Vacancy demand here is dominated by one retailer in particular \u2013 the Frasers Group, whose headquarters and main warehouse and distribution centre in Shirebrook (within Bolsover) alone accounted for approximately 48% of vacancy demand in the area over the past year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-21302\" src=\"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/frasersgroup_ho_shirebrook1-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Frasers Group HQ, Shirebrook in Bolsover\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1667\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/frasersgroup_ho_shirebrook1-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/frasersgroup_ho_shirebrook1-300x195.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/frasersgroup_ho_shirebrook1-1024x667.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/frasersgroup_ho_shirebrook1-768x500.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/frasersgroup_ho_shirebrook1-1536x1000.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/frasersgroup_ho_shirebrook1-2048x1333.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bolsover is not unfamiliar with the effects felt by the decline of an industry with local importance, having <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/miningheritage.co.uk\/markham-colliery-north-derbyshire-july-2023-anniversaries\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">previously been a significant coal mining area<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Perhaps this case study might also offer insights into what might become of Port Talbot \u2013 an area centred on industries dominated by low paying, low quality job opportunities, like wholesale and retail, healthcare and hospitality.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Healthcare<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Forest of Dean is the one local authority where vacancy demand is dominated by the healthcare industry.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Seven of the top 10 hiring employers in the industry over the period were in this industry \u2013 Outcomes First Group, Voyage Care, The Orders of St John Care Trust, Brandon Trust, Freedom Leisure, National Care Group, and Ramsay Health Care UK Operations. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While the industry dominates demand in the area, as it is relatively evenly spread across industries this somewhat reduces the risk of the locale to the damaging effects associated with the closure of a single employer.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>The next Port Talbot?<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So of the areas identified above as being dominated by a specific industry, which might the most likely to be the next Port Talbot? <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Well, given the high concentration of demand among a single employer, combined with the lack of stability that is inherent (to an extent) to the public sector, perhaps it is Bolsover. The continued cost of living crisis and weak economic situation might adversely affect the retail industry more so than others. Furthermore, at the end of last year, the Frasers Group <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/uk.news.yahoo.com\/retail-giant-frasers-group-unveil-153044947.html?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABpKzrionW8wppKwyT75SBnHTIFgQXXE83CrD-nPt7YrRHJigl4oWA73O1GN02tpjFjaWiDPT43tGPeV1478qVlWsdyTbG-FdV2DyldcSr2rtMg1YzQ-PRNz5I9o262YmYzur92_sCVMGz5U0pW3iUtKktCS4RfxqzToQj6rOaYI\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">announced<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> plans to move their headquarters to Rugby in Warwickshire. Should this go ahead, this could have seriously adverse consequences on the creation of job opportunities within the local labour market. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Policymakers (both locally and nationally \u2013 parts of the UK lagging far behind others is <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org\/reports\/ending-stagnation\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">cited<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> as a leading factor behind our weak performance in recent times) need to pay close attention to these developments, with there potentially being a lot to do to help those who may lose their jobs as well as replacing those that may be lost.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Written by Daniel Muir (Research Economist), IES with support from Nick Litsardopoulos (Research Economist), IES.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.employment-studies.co.uk\/\">IES<\/a> is an independent, apolitical, international centre of research and consultancy in public employment policy and HR management. It works closely with employers in all sectors, government departments, agencies, professional bodies and associations. IES is a focus of knowledge and practical experience in employment and training policy, the operation of labour markets, and HR planning and development. IES is a not-for-profit organisation.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"blog-cta-box\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Want to get data insights to help you make more informed decisions?\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/adzuna-intelligence\/contact\/\">Speak to our Adzuna Intelligence team.<\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"emoji\" draggable=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/11\/svg\/1f4a1.svg\" alt=\"\" \/> Read more: <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/the-search-for-better-labour-market-data\/\">The search for better labour market data<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After Tata Steel closed in Port Talbot, other local labour markets dominated by singular employers or industries may also be vulnerable,\u00a0write Daniel Muir, Research Economist at IES\u00a0and Nick Litsardopoulos, Research Economist at IES Last month, it was announced that Tata Steel would be closing its blast furnaces in Port Talbot. This sparked discussion about the<a class=\"moretag\" href=\"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/why-bolsover-could-be-the-next-port-talbot\/\"> Continued \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":51,"featured_media":21293,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1168],"tags":[1190],"class_list":["post-21290","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-adzuna-intelligence","tag-economy"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21290","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/51"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21290"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21290\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21311,"href":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21290\/revisions\/21311"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21293"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21290"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21290"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21290"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}